Book Review
The Power of Geography
Ten Maps That Reveal the Future of Our World
Reviewed by Dr. Jan P. Ganschow
Catapult Your Perspective from the Tactical to the Operational to the Strategic
Are you a judge advocate (JA) or legal advisor (LEGAD) searching for a fascinating read that finally lifts your tactical/operational focus to a larger, strategic perspective? Look no further. With The Power of Geography: Ten Maps That Reveal the Future of Our
World,1 you have the chance to step out of your foxhole as a legal subject matter expert and instantly broaden your comprehension. This book will boost your perspective about how current global events impact your nation and, perhaps, even help you identify courses of action to address the consequent challenges. This perspective is an invaluable asset to drafting informed opinion papers and organization-wide manuals, engaging in meaningful discussions, or simply understanding what is “going on” on the international plane. The Power of Geography presents fact-based analysis of how state-level competition can either avoid or cause international conflict. Every Soldier, Sailor, Marine, Airman, and Guardian, particularly the lawyers working in national security law, will find this publication most edifying.
In September 2021, the British exchange officer at The Judge Advocate General’s Legal Center and School recommended Tim Marshall’s 2015 Prisoners of Geography2 to me. He did so in the midst of a legal debate surrounding how Europe3
and the United States’4 security strategies might set an overarching superstructure for The Center for Law and Military Operations’5 approach to multinational legal interoperability. Our discussion gave me the feeling that this book put my well-read British colleague in a formidable position to better understand and contextualize certain global trends and developments in the common transatlantic approach to strategic security. As a result, I had immensely high expectations and was excited to get my hands on that book. Moreover, I was well aware of Robert Kaplan’s 2013 bestselling book, The Revenge of Geography’s6 impact. When I went to my bookstore to pick up a copy of Prisoners of Geography, I learned that the book’s highly anticipated follow-up, The Power of Geography, was published in November 2021. Since the subtitle promised to reveal “the [f]uture of [o]ur [w]orld,” I decided to start with it.
My high expectations were exceeded—particularly, that I would gain a better understanding of how geography7
determines the fate of peoples, nations, and international relations in
the long run. I also gained a much clearer perspective on the
foundations of European and American transatlantic foreign and security
policies. Indeed, it is no surprise that Terry Pattar, host of the
Janes8 October 2021 podcast, The World of Intelligence, recommended Marshall’s book to every new analyst as a primer on how geography determines politics, demographics, economies, and societies.9
In short, for those who are just too busy with time-consuming legal work and who struggle to piece together the bits of information the media throws at us, this book will deepen the reader’s understanding of current global affairs. It will shift the reader’s perspective from that of a bystander to one of an informed strategist who can understand and predict how global affairs develop and inform their own area of professional expertise. I might seem overly enthusiastic when I dare say that The Power of Geography can, therefore, serve as the “big bang” push to the frontiers of one’s previously scattered and fragmented understanding of the world. But, I have been searching for a comprehensive and condensed book that could inform my position concerning global affairs, and I finally found it in The Power of Geography.10
The Book and Its Author
The hardcover version of The Power of Geography has 294 pages, a helpful bibliography for every chapter, and a comprehensive index. It was published in the United States by Scribner, New York. A paperback and an audiobook version are also available. At the time of writing, the book received 643 global ratings on Amazon.com, of which 68 percent were five-star reviews and an additional 22 percent were four-star reviews. The most substantiated critique included in the lesser reviews concern the publisher’s presentation of the book, which supposedly displays poor black-and-white maps that inadequately illustrate the points made in each chapter. Maybe that is true, but, in my opinion, they lived up to the task of visually explaining and contextualizing Marshall’s descriptive text. Admittedly, I was so impressed by the content that I easily forgave this possible lapse. After all, beautiful, detailed maps are readily available at the touch of a button on most phones and computers.
The book’s author, Tim Marshall, was formerly the diplomatic editor and foreign correspondent for Sky News.11
After thirty years’ experience in news reporting from various countries,
he left full-time news journalism to concentrate on writing and
analysis. Marshall authored multiple books on geopolitics12
and founded a website13 on current affairs.
Ten Chapters on Regional Geo- and Power-Politics that Are More than the Sum of Their Parts
According to The New York Times Book Review, Marshall’s 2016 global bestseller, Prisoners of Geography, offered a “fresh way of looking at maps,” showing how every nation’s choices are limited by mountains, rivers, seas, and walls.14 Since then, the geography has not changed, but the world has, prompting Marshall’s new book. He takes the readers into ten regions (including space) that are set to shape global politics.
In chapter one, the reader learns how Australia’s history and geography—sitting as it does between the Indian Ocean, the Pacific, and China—shape its military, security, and economic policy.15 Marshall also introduces us to the “Quad Plus”: the “Quad” is the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, which includes Australia, the United States, Japan, and India; the “Plus” includes New Zealand, South Korea, and Vietnam.16 Chapter one also explains the key role navies play in this part of the globe.17 Marshall also discusses the American, British, Canadian, and New Zealand Armies program, or ABCANZ,18 along with the Five Eyes Community.19 At the same time, Marshall introduces us to the role of U.S. military bases in Australia: one in Darwin and another near Alice Springs, the latter one of the most important U.S. intelligence-gathering facilities and a critical ground station for Central Intelligence Agency satellites.20
Marshall states that, so far, Australia is sticking close to its best friends in America and that, for now, Canberra will attempt both to forge a constructive dialogue with Beijing (with one eye on the economy) and to maintain defense and other ties with the United States.21 The book was published shortly before Australia purchased at least eight nuclear-powered attack submarines (a contract valued at tens of billions of dollars), and the Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States22 defense pact concluded. Knowing about it, however, helps the reader retrace the strategic shift and understand why the pact is America’s most dramatic and determined move to counter what it, and others in the Indo-Pacific region, consider a growing threat from China.
Chapter two, on Iran,23 is fascinating thanks to its busy, reader-friendly information density and the enjoyable tour de force through Iran’s rich history and culture. In addition, Marshall, who always applies the decided viewpoint of western liberal democracies, fills the, admittedly, huge knowledge gaps I had about Iranian society, politics, and religion. The reader learns about Iran’s recent wars,24 the terror,25 the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps,26 the natural geographic fortification of the country,27
the strategic dimension of the Shatt al-Arab waterway,28
Zoroastrianism and Islam,29 why President Trump withdrew from the nuclear deal,30 and more.
Of course, the geostrategic role of the United States (its military capabilities, its global military footprint, and the power of its economy) is a constant topic in every chapter, but even more so in the chapter on Iran. According to Marshall, under President Biden, America has adjusted its goals from full regime change to seeking to change regime behavior.31 But Marshall argues, a regime that believes it is doing God’s work must view compromise as a sin and resistance as divine.32 As Marshall puts it: a regime that has shown a willingness to slaughter its people in the thousands to suppress dissent has gone too far to turn back.33
I was already amazed how well-informed Marshall is on current geopolitical affairs after reading the Australian chapter, and after the Iran chapter, I assumed he must have access to special sources.34 Indeed, each chapter makes clear that Marshall can rely on information that is not readily available to the average journalist. Of course, this makes the book, which will shape public (and probably more than one decision maker’s) opinion to no small amount, even more interesting to read.
Naturally, when Marshall writes on Saudi Arabia in chapter three, the role of the United States (and China) is once again a constant companion to nearly all strategic aspects. The chapter attempts to describe the tensions in the Saudi Arabian society,35
how the grip of the House of Saud depends on multiple factors (including
the differing views on its legitimacy),36
the power brokering around Muhammad Bin Salman (who in 2015 began a
meteoric ascent from little-known Saudi prince to de facto ruler),37
the disastrous war in Yemen,38 the bizarre abduction of Lebanon’s then-prime minister,39 the blockade of Qatar,40 and the murder of the Saudi journalist Jamal Kashoggi in Turkey.41
Marshall directly or indirectly touches upon legal aspects of the subject country’s international affairs in every chapter, so it is no wonder that he discusses international human rights in the Saudi Arabia chapter.42 For a LEGAD who is too occupied with everyday legal work in the garrison to take a broader perspective, Marshall helpfully clarifies that most Middle Eastern politicians look to China’s government as a framework.43 He emphasizes that it is true, as one Middle East political analyst stated, that “[t]he Chinese model of ‘state capitalism’ is appealing to most Arab politicians. ‘Economic liberalism’ decoupled from political liberalism is a model most governments in the region pursue, and in the past two decades the Chinese model is lauded as a success.”44 The short but well-selected historical excursions in this (and every) chapter nicely illustrate that a nation cannot fully comprehend its current state of affairs, nor can it predict its way ahead, without a thorough review of its history.
Throughout the book, Marshall weaves the role of the United States—and often its policies toward China and Russia—into his discussions of geographical regions. Whereas the chapter on space will be the first time that many readers are poised to ponder the strategic dimension of this war-fighting domain,45 the other chapters are no less insightfully researched and gripping to read. His conclusions are compelling and empower the reader with knowledge that would benefit any LEGAD, foreign policy advisor, cultural advisor, and history staff officer.
The chapter on space is particularly fascinating for a JA or LEGAD. Today, space affects every other warfighting domain to such a degree that many countries around the world have established military space commands46 in recent years.47 Even while space is not a legal no man’s land, it is, in large part, unregulated. Marshall elaborates on legal aspects of space and suggests that a shift in thinking from the current condition of state competition to peaceful cooperation is necessary to prevent space from becoming a theater of war. Reading the whole chapter with Marshall’s realistic findings on other regions in mind gives such statements a degree of urgency.
Marshall writes about a “Westphalian” concept of the universe—a system of states holding sovereign power over mutually recognized territories. He also discusses its alternative, the recognition that “our common humanity and the challenges of space travel [are] propelling us into acting as one people as we venture beyond our earthly home.”48 That may strike some readers as rather sentimental for a book on geopolitics. If one thoroughly reads the chapter on space and remembers the lengths to which the United States, China, Russia, and some other states go to achieve “full-spectrum dominance” through space activities, it becomes clear that this chapter is an essential study of space technicalities, space law, and space politics, even if it occasionally strays into loftier, quasi-philosophical discussions of humanity’s future.
The “Big Picture,” Never Without the United States
A major U.S. publisher promises that The Power of Geography not only will reveal “the [f]uture of [o]ur [w]orld,”49 but also “why Earth’s atmosphere is the world’s next battleground; why the fight for the Pacific is just beginning; and why Europe’s next refugee crisis is closer than we think.”50
Before reading the book, these projections sounded far-fetched. However,
Marshall makes a compelling case that this is likely the future we will
face. Marshall explains how a region’s geography and physical
characteristics affect its leaders’ decisions. Indeed, the book’s jacket
text accurately describes it as “innovative, compelling, . . . delivered
with Marshall’s trademark wit and insight,” and a gripping and
enlightening exploration of the power of geography to shape humanity’s
past, present, and—most importantly—future. Such blurbs are often over
exaggerations. That is not the case here.
While it is true that none of the chapters exclusively examine U.S.
geography and its geopolitical implications, America’s role, impact, and
significance are mentioned in nearly every chapter. Indeed, the
competition between an American-led informal coalition of industrialized
democracies and a loose alliance of authoritarian states dominated by
China is an underlying topic that pulls the reader through every
chapter. Consequently, every JA with a U.S.-centric job would find
The Power of Geography particularly valuable.
Every chapter of The Power of Geography provides a big-picture view of that particular region, and allows informed citizens to rely on Marshall’s analysis of their nation without having to study politics and international relations. For example, I have followed the developments in Mali and other states in the Sahel Zone since 2013, when German armed forces started participating in the United Nations’ Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali or “MINUSMA.”51 As a result, I felt quite well informed about the United Nations, European Union and United States’ military efforts in the Sahel Zone. Even so, I was astonished by how often I thought “I did not know that” while learning from Marshall. Each chapter is also a powerhouse of strategic analysis. Marshall addresses a broad range of direct military issues in each chapter and provides comprehensive briefings on topics that are usually kept behind closed doors with senior decision makers. I am not aware of any other current publication that so concisely explains some of the most pressing topics of our time52 while contextualizing their strategic implications for certain regions, trends and current events.
A book about geopolitics that focuses on state- and non-state actors, future wars, and security politics, cannot neglect the legal dimension, and The Power of Geography does not. On multiple occasions, Marshall mentions the international law aspects of the global affairs he presents to the reader.53 While he never elaborates in-depth, he always informs the reader where legal challenges lie and where to dig deeper. Also, where he does not do so, even an unexperienced JA or LEGAD will surely recognize the general legal issue at hand. For example, they would know to contemplate the legality of the use of force when Marshall contextualizes the U.S. assassination54 of General Qasem Soleimani, commander of Iran’s elite Revolutionary Guard’s Quds Force, as he arrived in Baghdad to meet a militia leader in early 2020.
Reading as the Easiest Way to Travel: The Power of Geography as a Tour Guide Through Global Affairs
With The Power of Geography, the reader gains knowledge that, while not direct “actionable intelligence” on the tactical and operational plane, nonetheless rewards the reader with a much better understanding of global affairs. Tim Marshall delivers an intellectual and entertaining outlook on geopolitics. He consistently applies the western liberal democratic worldview and values to draw his conclusions, but he also leaves room for the reader’s own thoughts on how others, like the Chinese and the Russians, would probably view the issues at hand. Therefore, every JA or LEGAD who feels that principled legal counsel and advice—as well as any informed legal conversation—cannot rely on legal technical knowledge alone should read The Power of Geography, which takes the “big picture” into account. Having read The Power of Geography (and placed it on my office bookshelf for quick reference), I dare say that I understand our world in its current state of affairs a little better, which can only help me in my LEGAD role. What more could one ever expect from a book? TAL
Dr. Ganschow is a Legal Advisor with the German Armed Forces Legal Service. He is currently the Action Officer for Multinational Operations and Interoperability with the Center for Law and Military Operations at The Judge Advocate General’s Legal Center and School in Charlottesville, Virginia.
Notes
1. Tim Marshall, The Power of Geography: Ten Maps that Reveal the Future
of our World
(Scribner 2021) (2021).
2.
Tim Marshall, Prisoners of Geography: Ten Maps that Explain
Everything About the World (Scribner 2015).
3. See Eur. Union, Shared Vision, Common Action: A Stronger Europe: A Global
Strategy For the European Union’s Foreign and Security Policy
(2016); Eur. Union, The European Union’s Global Strategy: Three Years
On, Looking Forward
(2019).
4.
Joseph R. Biden, Jr., The White House, Interim National Security
Strategic Guidance (2021). This interim guidance conveys President Biden’s vision for how America
will engage with the world, and provides guidance for departments and
agencies to align their actions with the U.S. national security
strategy.
5.
See Center for Law and Military Operations (CLAMO),
The Judge Advoc. Gen.’s Legal Ctr. & Sch.,
https://tjaglcs.army.mil/clamo (last visited Dec. 28, 2022).
6.
Robert D. Kaplan, The Revenge of Geography: What the Map Tells Us
About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate
(2013). The cover text promises a “brilliant rebuttal to thinkers who
suggest that globalism will trump geography.”
Id. While earning an LL.M in International Law & Politics back in 2013 at the University of Canterbury in Christchurch, New Zealand, I learned from peers that The Revenge of Geography brings readers back from an overly idealistic view of international relations to a hard power-politics reality, where the end of history has yet to take place and a universal adherence to a liberal, rules-based international order has yet to replace geostrategic interests. Many online reviews of The Revenge of Geography concur with this assessment. See, e.g., Felipe Fernandez-Armesto, History’s Playing Field, Wall St. J. (Sept. 12, 2012), https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10000872396390443686004577633490631541260.
7. Geography is the “science that deals with the description, distribution, and interaction of the diverse physical, biological, and cultural features of the earth’s surface.” Geography, Merriam-Webster (Dec. 18, 2022), https://www.merriam-webster.com/dictionary/geography.
8. Janes is a self-described “global, open-source defense intelligence company specializing in military, national security, aerospace and transport topics.” Janes, https://www.janes.com (last visited Apr. 10, 2023). Reference to this company does not constitute an endorsement.
9. The World of Intelligence, The Power of Geography: A Conversation with Tim Marshall, JANES (Oct. 28, 2021), https://podcast.janes.com/public/68/The-World-of-Intelligence-50487d09/aae7e1d8.
10. A great many thanks to my British colleague.
11. Tim Marshall, Simon & Schuster, https://www.simonandschuster.com/authors/Tim-Marshall/523742523 (last visited Feb. 19, 2023).
12. Tim Marshall, A Flag Worth Dying For: The Power and Politics of
National Symbols (2018); Tim Marshall, Shadowplay: Behind the Lines
and Under Fire: The Inside Story of Europe’s Last War (2019); Tim
Marshall, The Age of Wall: How Barriers Between Nations Are Changing
Our World (2019).
13. Tim Marshall,
The What & The Why: Extremes are Easy. The Centre is Hard, Blogspot, http://www.thewhatandthewhy.com (last visited Dec. 28, 2022).
14. Joshua Hammer,
‘Map: Exploring the World,’ ‘The Curious Map Book’ and More, N.Y. Times (Dec. 1, 2015), https://www.nytimes.com/2015/12/06/books/review/map-exploring-the-world-the-curious-map-book-and-more.html?searchResultPosition=1.
15. Marshall, supra note 1, at 11-36.
16. See Marshall, supra note 1, at 32. The Quad: The Origins of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue, The Week (May 25, 2022), https://www.theweek.co.uk/news/world-news/asia-pacific/956856/the-quad-the-origins-of-the-quadrilateral-security-dialogue.
17. Marshall, supra note 1, at 32.
18. International Standardization, U.S. Dep’t of Def., Def. Standardization Program, https://www.dsp.dla.mil/Programs/International-Standardization (last
visited Dec. 28, 2022) (explaining the American, British, Canadian,
Australian and New Zealand (ABCANZ) Armies Program).
19. Id. (explaining the Five Eyes Air Force Interoperability Council); see Marshall, supra note 1, at 31.
20. Marshall, supra note 1, at 31.
21. Marshall, supra note 1, at 29-30.
22. AUKUS is the trilateral defense pact between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. AUKUS Reshapes the Strategic Landscape of the Indo-Pacific, The Economist (Sept. 25, 2021), https://www.economist.com/briefing/2021/09/25/aukus-reshapes-the-strategic-landscape-of-the-indo-pacific (providing a profound background briefing on AUKUS).
23. Marshall, supra note 1, at 37-64.
24. Marshall, supra note 1, at 50-58.
25. Marshall, supra note 1, at 50-58.
26. Marshall, supra note 1, at 47.
27. Marshall, supra note 1, at 37-40.
28. Marshall, supra note 1, at 38.
29. Marshall, supra note 1, at 43.
30. Marshall, supra note 1, at 54.
31. Marshall, supra note 1, at 60.
32. Marshall, supra note 1, at 61.
33. Marshall, supra note 1, at 57.
34. For example, in the chapter on the Sahel Zone, Marshall refers to “a Western intelligence source operating in the region.” Marshall, supra note 1, at 171.
35. Marshall, supra note 1, at 65-70.
36. Marshall, supra note 1, at 71-75.
37. Marshall, supra note 1, at 76-78.
38. Marshall, supra note 1, at 79.
39. Marshall, supra note 1, at 79-81.
40. Marshall, supra note 1, at 78.
41. Marshall, supra note 1, at 80.
42. See Marshall, supra note 1, at 86.
43. Marshall, supra note 1, at 86.
44. See Marshall, supra note 1, at 86 (quoting Mina Al-Oraibi).
45. According to Marshall, “[s]pace as war-fighting domain” is a mantra of the U.S. Department of Defense. Marshall, supra note 1, at 251.
46. After U.S. Space Command was established in 1985 and disestablished in 2002, a second incarnation of U.S. Space Command was established in 2019. General John Raymond, Commander, U.S. Space Command, Recognition of the Establishment Ceremony (Sept. 12, 2019). France’s Commandement de l’Espace was established in 2019. Arrêté du 3 septembre 2019 portant création et organisation du
commandement de l’espace, République Française (July 2, 2021),
https://www.legifrance.gouv.fr/loda/id/LEGITEXT000039062984. Germany’s
Weltraumkommando was established in 2021.
German Armed Forces Enter the Space Battlefield, Aerotime Hub (July 16, 2021), https://www.aerotime.aero/articles/28391-german-armed-forces-enter-the-space-battlefield. The United Kingdom’s Space Command was established in 2021. Ed Adamczyk, British Military Launches its Own Space Command with Official
Opening, UPI (July 30, 2021), https://www.upi.com/Defense-News/2021/07/30/britain-spacecommand-space/9341627673754.
47. At the inauguration of the U.S. Space Force, President Trump said, “American superiority is absolutely vital. . . . The Space Force will help us deter aggression and control the ultimate high ground.” Marshall, supra note 1, at 251-52.
48. Marshall, supra note 1, at 257.
49. Marshall, supra note 1 (subtitle).
50. Marshall, supra note 1 (back cover).
51. United Nations Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in
Mali,
United Nations, https://minusma.unmissions.org/en (last visited Dec. 28, 2022).
52. For example, water wars, rare earths, COVID-19, climate change, new
weapons technology, terrorism, space, and espionage (while never
explicitly mentioned, it is always present).
See Marshall, supra note 1, at 154, 183, 252.
53. See, e.g., Marshall, supra note 1, at 118, 132, 152, 168, 241, 242, 246, 251, 258.
54. Marshall, supra note 1, at 55-56 (contrasting the view that this might have been a legitimate killing of a combatant leader in the global war on terror). In a letter to the U.N. Security Council, the United States’ Permanent Representative to the U.N., Ambassador Kelly Craft, stated that the attack was conducted under the United States’ inherent right of self-defense and in accordance with Article 51 of the U.N. Charter. See Letter from Kelly Craft, United Nations Ambassador, Permanent Representative of the U.S., to the President of the United Nations Sec. Council (Jan. 9, 2020), https://digitallibrary.un.org/record/3846463.